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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2014-04-01T17:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-04-01T17:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/5077/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-04-05T09:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-04-05T03:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below).
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Apr 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Frequent low-level C-class flares occurred, most
of which were from Region 2026 (S11E44, Dai/beta-gamma). Minor spot and
penumbra development was noted in Region 2026 along with a mix of
polarities in the leading half of the region. A filament, centered near
N02E20, erupted from the northeast quadrant at around 01/1439 UTC and
was associated with an Earth-directed, asymmetric full-halo coronal mass
ejection (CME). The CME was first visible in LASCO images at around
01/1648 UTC and had a speed of around 858 km/s.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (02-04 Apr) with
a chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (02-04 Apr). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at
background levels during the period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind was slightly enhanced. However, no evident CME signatures
were observed from the expected arrival of the first of a series of CMEs
that occurred between 28 and 30 Mar. Solar wind speed ranged from 362 to
502 km/s. Total field was relatively steady between 4 nT and 7 nT, while
the Bz component was variable at +/- 5 nT. Phi data indicated a
positive-polarity (away) solar sector during the period.

.Forecast...
No significant changes are expected in the solar wind flow until around
midday on 04 Apr. A CME is expected to arrive around midday on 04 Apr
with enhancements in wind speed, density, and total field expected
during the remainder of 04 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels
until around midday on 04 Apr. Field activity is expected to increase to
unsettled to active levels (below G1-Minor) during the latter half of 04
Apr due to a CME passage from the 01 Apr filament eruption mentioned
above.
--

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Apr 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 02-Apr 04 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 02-Apr 04 2014

            Apr 02     Apr 03     Apr 04
00-03UT        1          3          2     
03-06UT        1          2          1     
06-09UT        1          2          1     
09-12UT        1          2          3     
12-15UT        1          2          3     
15-18UT        1          2          4     
18-21UT        1          2          4     
21-00UT        2          2          4     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Apr 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
...
Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-2 (03-04
Apr). By early on day 3 (05 Apr), the 01 Apr CME associated with a
filament eruption is expected to impact the geomagnetic field causing
quiet to active conditions with a slight chance for minor (G1-Minor)
storm conditions.
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Apr 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 03-Apr 05 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 03-Apr 05 2014

            Apr 03     Apr 04     Apr 05
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          4     
06-09UT        1          1          4     
09-12UT        1          1          3     
12-15UT        1          1          3     
15-18UT        1          1          3     
18-21UT        2          2          3     
21-00UT        1          2          3   
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Apr 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during 03
-04 Apr with a slight chance for unsettled levels. Activity is expected
to increase to unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels, with a slight
chance for major storm levels (G2-Moderate), beginning early on 05 April
due to the arrival of the CME from the filament eruption on 01 April.

--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Apr 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 03-Apr 05 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 03-Apr 05 2014

            Apr 03     Apr 04     Apr 05
00-03UT        1          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          4     
06-09UT        1          1          5 (G1)
09-12UT        2          1          4     
12-15UT        2          1          3     
15-18UT        1          1          3     
18-21UT        1          2          3     
21-00UT        1          2          3
Lead Time: 57.17 hour(s)
Difference: 6.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-04-03T00:30Z
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